Part 1: Northern Fleet Yasen-class SSGNs in 2022

Using open sources to look at the activity and operational tempo of the Northern Fleets most modern and capable multi-role submarines.

The imagery of Zapadnaya Litsa recently posted by @MT_Anderson on Twitter made me take another look at Sentinel-2 imagery of this base, now with more confidence when looking at the Yasen-class SSGNs.

MT Anderson @MT_Anderson

🇷🇺NORTHERN FLEET: ZAPADNAYA LITSA🇷🇺 0.5M📸 FROM MAR 8, 2023. First high res images for 2023. Notables⬇️ 3x Oscar Class SSGN 1x Yasen Class SSGN 1x Yasen-M Class SSGN As always, corrections are welcome.

Fairly soon it became apparent that the two Yasens, Severodvinsk and Kazan, likely spent a fair amount of time away from their home bases, most of it presumably at sea, in 2022.

Due to low resolution and the nature of Sentinel imagery, normal Sentinel caveats apply when used.

The result of this two part series is an assessment on the number of operational patrols the pair of Yasens conducted in 2022 , so please continue reading and don't miss part 2 later.

February 2022

I'll start the story with the first clear imagery for 2022, February 12th. This was in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and a large Northern Fleet and strategic forces exercise was looming. Both Yasens were likely alongside on this date.

The next day with good conditions, February 25th, one of the Yasens is likely missing, presumably at sea. The sub in question possibly departed after the 23rd.

March 2022

The missing submarine had returned by March 6th and for the reminder of the month, both Yasens likely remained alongside. There were quite a few days with good weather this month, so this assessment is as good as it can get using Sentinel imagery.

April 2022

For the first two weeks of April, both Yasen-class SSGNs remained alongside. In the last weeks of this month, the weather didn't cooperate. Confidence is not high on the image below, but come May, we get a better look.

May 2022

May was a month with more cooperative weather. By May 3rd, both Yasens were missing, presumably at sea. There are a number of good passes for the rest of the month and the piers appear to remain empty.

On May 9th, a Yasen-class SSGN was spotted on the surface in the Motovsky Bay.

H I Sutton @CovertShores

**UPDATE** #Russian Navy nuclear submarine observed in Arctic. This submarine is very capable and potent. Info and cutaway here -> hisutton.com/Pr885_Severodv…

June 2022

Then things are quiet for a while. On June 22nd, the Northern Fleet says in a press-release that the Yasen-class SSGN Severodvinsk has conducted a live firing exercise in the Barents Sea.

The Lookout @The_Lookout_N

Now we know what the large Barents Sea NOTAM and PRIP was for. SS-N-19 from the Oscar-II class SSGN Smolensk and reportedly SS-N-27 from the Yasen-class SSGN Severodvinsk. Filmed from a Udaloy-class DDG, either the Severomorsk or the Admiral Levchenko.

Massimo Frantarelli @MrFrantarelli

The Northern Fleet nuclear-powered submarine missile cruisers "Severodvinsk" (Project 885) and "Smolensk" (Project 949A) carried out joint firing of cruise missiles (Kalibr and Granit) at a group of landing ships of the conventional enemy at a distance of about 200 kilometers. https://t.co/FcgOYztQfA

The next time it looks like we have a Yasen-class alongside at the pier in Zapadnaya Litsa is June 29th, when one had returned. Based on the press-release above, and later trip to the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, there's reason to suspect this was the Severodvinsk.

July 2022

What could have been the Severodvinsk only had a short visit back home, for by July 1st, the pier is empty again.

The Severodvinsk then surfaced off the Norwegian West Coast on July 16th, enroute to St. Petersburg and the Navy Day parade.

The Barents Observer @BarentsNews

Two Russian nuclear submarines ('Severodvinsk' and 'Vepr') surfaced northwest of Norway's Haakonsvern naval base on July 16 and 19.

thebarentsobserver.comThe two nuclear subs sailing to St. Petersburg surfaced northwest of Haakonsvern naval baseWhile Norwegian officials are reluctant to give details, the British Royal Navy now tells how they shadowed the two Russian Northern Fleet submarines “Vepr” and “Severodvinsk” as they made their underwater journey south along the coast of Norway from the Arctic.

For much of July the weather was uncooperative, but by July 23rd, a Yasen-class has returned home and with the Severodvinsk in the Baltic, this must then be the Kazan.

Summing up so far

Based on the information shown above, I belive there is a good chance both the Severodvinsk and the Kazan made an operational patrol between early May and July.

The Severodvinsk possibly a shorter one, following a work-up in early May and ending the patrol with a live firing exercise in June, so time on patrol about a month.

The Kazan on the other hand, was likely away for nearly 3 months. This is close to the estimated endurance of a Yasen-class, so it likely made a full operational patrol in this period.

You'll find Part 2 here.

Regards

The Lookout