Summer Fury: Initial thoughts on the Ukrainian offensive

Be patient, it's still early.

Ukrainian Leopard 2 somewhere in Zaporizhzhia. Photo: https://t.me/mysiagin/22982

The long expected Ukrainian counter-offensive now seems to be well underway, with Zaporizhzhia as the focal point, but not the only sector of the front under pressure. The fog of war lays thick and the operation just started. The information environment is fragmented and we rely mostly on Russian sources, as the Ukrainians are quiet. This isn't the time for hard conclusions as to how the situation will develop or on the outcome of the operation.

Therefore, this article isn't prediction on how the frontlines will look X number of days or weeks from now. Rather than that, this is a collection of thoughts that hopefully will help putting the recent visually dramatic snapshots from the battlefield into a wider perspective, as I see the situation at the moment, going into the months ahead.

Expectations and perceptions

As already said, the offensive has been expected and discussed for a long time. From certain corners, expectations on how the offensive will unfold and what it can achieve has been running high. My main message on what Ukraine possibly can achieve in their next offensive has since last fall been to manage expectations, rather than naming explicit goals or courses of action.

In the public debate, we don't know the Ukrainian plans, their objectives and timelines. How to define success or failure if multiple units of measure are unknown?

From a strategic and operational perspective, it is possible to make reasonable assessments and assumptions on objectives, but timeline is much harder.

Based the information available now, doing this exercise at the tactical level doesn't yield usable results. Each video or photo is a snapshot. What was the prelude to what we see? What is happening outside the field of view, in adjacent sectors?

More questions: Are the Ukrainians still probing? What is the main effort and what are diversionary attacks? How many units have been committed? The original timeline for different objectives? How much artillery ammo and precision fires is available? There are these and many more. Some are unknown, some shouldn't be answered in public until later, all impact how this offensive will proceed.

Secondly, don't underestimate Russian combat potential when on the defensive. So far this week, it seems they are putting up determined resistace in most areas. In many aspects, especially artillery, airpower and near frontline air defences, the Russians have an edge. In Kherson, they managed to tenaciously hang on for months, with vulnerable supply-lines, before making a relatively orderly retreat across the Dnipro.

This leads to the third point, geography and Russian fortifications. There has been a tendency to ridicule the extensive Russian fortifications and claim precision fires and Western equipment would render them moot. Some, myself included, have repeatedly warned against underestimating the challenge these fortifications represents, especially the accompanying minefields. Coupled with the wide, open terrain this makes any attacks, especially breaking through and then exploiting, a difficult task. The past few days have shown this to be the case, for now, in this phase.

A fourth point concerns the Ukrainian units involved. Those specifically set aside for the offensive, such at the 9th and 10th Corps, are wartime raised, manned mostly by mobilized personell. Due to attrition, mobilized also makes up a large percentage of other Ukrainian units too. Western training may have helped on some aspects, but I wouldn't overemphasize the effect of this as all training programs are short by normal standards .There will therefore be a need for “on the job" training, resulting in mistakes that unfortunately also casualties, requiring new attempts with more losses. This is the grim reality.

Ukraine hasn't attempted an operation on this scale before either, adding to the challenge for everyone involved, at all levels, from the platoon to the higher staffs.

The nature of the coming battles

As this war repeatedly has shown, modern, high intensity war eats men, machines and supplies at frightening rates. Breaching operations are one of the hardest tasks there is and even the best trained and equipped Western unit would likely take heavy casualties doing what Ukraine is attempting now. Especially without the level of air support some Western nations takes for granted and which Ukraine doesn't have.

So far in the war, neither side has been unable to break through and exploit the breach against determined resistace, only against thinly held lines. We will therefore, unfortunately, likely see Ukrainian battalions and even brigades being ground down, especially the first echelon units. However, his is a poor metric of success or failure.

Attrition can enable manoeuvre. Ukraine needs to apply pressure by working methodically, over time, and have second- (and third) echelons ready to exploit a possible breakthrough, which at some point in time (and/or space) could happen quickly. Will it happen and could operations go mobile? We don't know, but the Ukrainians have to try achive this and plan accordingly, the Russians will try prevent it.

Pressure must also be maintained not only in Zaporizhzhia, but also at other sectors of the front, such as we see around Bakhmut or with the raids into Belgorod. This ties down Russian units, can prevent transfer of reserves against Ukraine’s main effort, consumes supplies (especially artillery ammo) and also offer local opportunities for recapturing occupied territory.

Patience

This offensive has been long in the making and it will likely turn into a series of battles and smaller operations, playing out over weeks and months. Therefore, I wouldn't pay attention to tabloid hubris or doom and gloom, from any side, especially now in the early days. The only certain thing this summer is that we will see images and videos of death and destruction, including of destroyed Western made equipment, brought directly to us via to social media.

War is a ghastly business, bringing loss, sorrow and pain. It is important to state that I’m not indifferent to casualties, but if Ukraine is to liberate significant parts of occupied territory in this operation, there's no way around assembling for the assault. Again and again.

Assessing how Russia handles and responds to the offensive also requires patience. They may have dug extensive fortifications and are seemingly holding, but they take casualties too. For now, no major transfers of reserves appear to have started, indicating the Russian command think the units currently engaged can handle the situation, but this can and likely will change over time.

While uncommitted Russian units exists, reserves aren't plentiful, even if some units are freed up due to the flooding on the Dnipro. Continued pressure will put a overall strain on logistics, manpower- and equipment availability. If Russia is forced to move units from between sectors and groupings, new opportunities may open up.

Even if Putin orders another wave of mobilization, this won't generate immediate effects on the frontlines.

Western support to Ukraine

This offensive will be costly so this means that the flow of donations needs to keep going, especially regarding MBTs, IFVs/APCs, artillery and of course ammunition and spare parts.

Western support in establishing a robust maintenance and repair capability inside Ukraine for already donated equipment is also vital. If retrieved, a lot of damaged and abandoned equipment can be put back into service, or cannibalized for parts, but this requires the right organization to handle this.

With Storm Shadow, Ukraine can now hit beyond GMLRS range, but the numbers of both missiles and delivery aircraft are likely low. Supplying other long-range systems and doing so quickly would enable Ukraine to hit more targets, with higher intensity, putting further strain on Russian rear area functions.

Sustaining and improving Ukrainian air defences remains a priority as continued Russian strikes on deep targets creates a dilemma between defending cities vs frontline coverage. While this is shrouded in uncertainty, there are indications that both Russian fixed- and rotary wing assets are involved in the current defensive operations, delivering atleast some effects.

Summing up

This was never going to be an easy operation. Breaking through the Russian defensive lines, almost regardless of which sector one looks at, will be hard and bloody work. While Zaporizhzhia, which seems to be the main effort, also could be the toughest nut to crack, this is where the best possibilities for future operations are found.

The fog lays thick over the battlefield. We only see snapshots, currently mostly from the Russian side, so piecing together the larger picture is hard. All assessments, especially in the open source domain carries with them a level of uncertainty. Patience is required before one can tell where this is heading.

There are no signs of Russia backing down, so this offensive is likely only one phase in the war, that paves way for the next. As I repeatedly have said, a long war needs to be the guiding strategic planning assumption, both in the West and in Ukraine.

Have patience, acknowledge uncertainty, remain cool-headed and wait and see what Ukraine can achieve over time. This will be a long, grueling summer.

To the soldiers of the AFU heading into the attack; Godspeed!

Regards

The Lookout