Prospects for the Ukrainian offensive going into autumn and winter
Thank you very much. I greatly appreciate these articles - they are very helpful indeed in assisting a non-expert person like me gain a better understanding of the course of the conflict.
Many also vastly overestimates the impact of long-range fires, saying that if Ukraine gets “x kilometers further south”, Russian supply-lines will become unsustainable. -> I agree with this for some russians' countermeasures against long-range strike resources, and their effort to reconstitute the logistics, and simply deploying more resources.
Also, Tatarigami_UA had mentioned about cost-effiency of long range fires, because they cannot shoot HIMARS for a single GAZ truck.
Nice work with this piece.
Something I've been wondering as this offensive unfolds regarding Russian defense operations - why are they conducting such an active/forward defence? Both sides seem to have accepted that attrition is king for the forseeable future, so why are the russians fighting for every inch and systematically counterattacking to such a high degree? I'm assuming that it's a more costly defense strategy than a proper defense in depth, which seems to be what they set themselves up for with their layered fortifications. That said, I don't know much about contemporary russian defense doctrine. Any thoughts?
I am not surprised by the results. What did surprise me was all the talk about a summer offensive. Ukraine is the weaker player here. Ukraine enjoyed some success last fall because she fully mobilized and as a result enjoyed a numerical advantage of Russia at that time. But Russia mobilized an addition 300K troops who would be in place by summer and they would have time to dig in. And since they have drafted more.
In a war of attrition, how can Ukraine win? Won't they simply run out of men before the Russians do?
Thank you. Clear eyed and succinct.
You are suggesting to move some units to concentrate on Orikhiv. As simple as that! But what if russians mirror that and also concentrate their numerically superior force on Orikhiv?
Firstly, that axis has been prioritised anyways.
Secondly, what you have overlooked in this article is the much shorter distances between theatres of operations which Ukraine enjoys. That forces russians to defend everywhere and has allowed Ukraine to strike where least expected. Would be quite unwise to forgo such a huge advantage and concentrate on a single axis where the enemy is expecting you.