Russian Naval Activity in the coming months - Possibilities
A look at what the coming Russian naval exercises could entail
Yasen-class SSGN Severodvinsk. Photo: Oleg Kuleshov
Today, the Russian MOD announced the start of naval exercises involving the Northern, Pacific and Baltic Fleets and the Caspian Flotilla, reportedly involving “300 surface ships and boats, submarines and support vessels, up to 50 aircraft, more than 200 units of military and special equipment, over 20,000 servicemen”1.
Numbers given in such statements are always a bit creative, but this indicates that most available hulls likely will participate. I have termed this Phase 1 of the Russian Navy exercises that are expected from now through to this fall.
On December 1st 2023, then Russian Defenses Minister Shoigu announced that the main Russian strategic exercise for next year would be called Okean-20242. Due to the ground forces being tied up in the war, this is a natural departure from the pre-invasion Zapad, Vostok, Tsenter and Kavkaz series of land centric large scale exercises.
Okean exercises have quite an heritage, contributing to setting the expectations as to what we may get to see. The perhaps most famous being Okean-70, which really showed what Admiral Gorshkov's Soviet Navy had become and where it was heading, in a world wide exercise.
At the time of writing, we do not know the Russian plans. What is coming could turn out to be underwhelming or it could end up being a real show of force. As opposed to the rest of the Russian Armed Forces, with the exception of the Black Sea Fleet and Naval Infantry unis, the Navy is largely unaffected by the war and thereby offers an opportunity to show strength.
The last large scale Russian naval exercise was in the lead up to the invasion, in the winter of 2022. Since then, the exercises and overall level of activity has been relatively muted, with the Fleets main exercises of the year being isolated events, held as normal around September.
In this article, I will look at exercises conducted in recent years that may offer an indication of what may be coming and that can be pieced together as a global exercise.
Russia will conduct heightened naval and air activity near the United States. These actions will likely culminate in a global Russian naval exercise this fall.
Northern Fleet
The Northern Fleet usually conducts its main exercise of the year in the Barents Sea September, usually involving anti-ship missile live firings from the main platforms such as the SSGNs.
Example from 2021, Northern Fleet live firing linked to Zapad.
Since 2013, the Northern Fleet has conducted an annual deployment along the Northeast Passage, usually sailing to the East Siberian Islands before heading back west. These deployments have usually departed Severomorsk in August. Composition has varied but the norm is a DDG, an LST, an oiler and a rescue tug. It would be surprising if we don't see such a deployment this year too.
Other Northern Fleet surface ships will highly likely operate in the Barents Sea, possibly in the Norwegian and beyond and also possibly coordinated with the Baltic Fleet, as will be looked at in the next chapter.
Looking for more spicy options, there was the 2019 Northern Fleet submarine surge. Conducted in October that year, according Norwegian Intelligence Service statements given to Norwegian media at the time, it involved 10 submarines, 8 of them nuclear powered, operating in the Norwegian Sea and beyond.3 If the Russians want to conduct real signalling to NATO, this is how it's done. Assigning probability for this course of action is impossible in the open source domain but I wouldn't rule out such a sub surge sometime in the coming months.
A large submarine component may also involve a SSBN surge, possibly under the Arctic ice, though such operations have either been conducted independently, such as Umka-20214 or as part of the strategic nuclear forces exercise Grom. The latter is usually held in late October but has, since the invasion been a muted affair though a high number of SSBNs went to sea, likely only for a short period, during this exercise 2022.5
The Northern Fleet also currently has the Gorskhov-class FFG Admiral Gorshkov and the oiler Akademik Pashin in the Mediterranean, following their visit to the Caribbean.
Baltic Fleet and Ocean Shield exercises
The Baltic Fleet main exercises are conducted both in the Baltic, North Sea and eastern Atlantic. In the two latter, often as part of an exercise called Ocean Shield, held around August.
Ocean Shield 2019 turned into a larger affair which included the Northern Fleet and operations in the Barents and Norwegian Seas.
In the Baltic Sea, the main exercises often culminated with a major amphibious landing in Kaliningrad. But, with three of four Ropucha-class LSTs consigned to the Black Sea for the duration and the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade mostly deployed to Ukraine, it's highly unlikely we'll see this now.
One constraint is that the Baltic Fleet is escorting certain merchant ships on the Syria/Libya run from the Baltic to the Skagerrak, requiring available corvettes or frigates.
In 2023, two Karakurts operated on Lake Ladoga, testing the feasibility of using the lake as an inland Kalibr bastion.6 This is something we could see again, integrated with a larger exercise.
On out of area deployment, the Neustrashimy-class FFG Neustrashimy and oiler Yelnya is currently in the Caribbean.
Regardless of course of action, the Baltic Sea will likely become busy in the coming months.
Pacific Fleet
The Pacific Fleet's main exercise has in recent years involved a substantial deployment of ships and submarines to the northern Pacific, Bering and Chukchi Seas. In addition to this, there tends to be coinciding exercise activity involving the Fleet's smaller warships and Kilo-class SSKs in the Sea of Japan, Kurils and the Sea of Okhotsk.
The Borei-class SSBN Imperator Aleksandr III and the Yasen-M class SSGN Krasnoyarsk will likely commence the transfer from Kola to their home in Kamchatka in in August and can take part in exercises on all parts of their journey.
In the summer of 2021, the Pacific Fleet conducted it's largest exercise in the Central Pacific since the Cold War, also operating close to Hawaii. In addition to the surface ships seen below, there likey was a submarine component to this exercise.
Link to original post
While a repeat of this is possible, it is probably beyond the Fleet’s capabilities to do this while simultaneously holding a larger exercise in the northern Pacific. An unknown here is that little is known in the open source domain about the long distance operations of Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines.
The Slava-class cruiser Varyag and the Udaloy Mod class FFG Marshal Shaposhnikov sailed on an out of area deployment in January, left the Mediterranean in mid July and is currently likely in the Indian Ocean. They can participate in exercises on their way home, but due having been at sea for 7 months, ending it with a lengthy Pacific deployment is perhaps unlikely.
The Mediterranean
While there likely will be exercise activity in the Mediterranean, the Russian group there is currently moderate and it has operational tasks, such as escorting merchant ships on the Syria/Libya run.
However, as the timeline is unknown and could stretch into fall, there is the possiblity of additional units arriving from the Baltic and Northern Fleets.
Summing up
As said at the beginning, we don't know the Russian plans but my purpose here is to look at what the past can tell us of what options are available to them. There is a possibility this could turn out to be underwhelming.
However, if they choose to do so, the overall level of activity could become very high and Russia here has an opportunity to conduct a show of force, directed at the US and NATO across most of the northern hemisphere.
If they do so, especially underwater, the period we are now entering will become very busy, with Western naval and air forces having to commit considerable resources to keep track of them.
While not predetermined, in the current security climate and depending on what the Russians end up doing, the possiblity exists that this can increase east - west tensions, at least temporarily. Especially if we get to see large submarine deployments from both the Northern and Pacific Fleets.
Everything needs to be seen as a whole and Russian naval activity will happen against a background with the war in Ukraine and the Russian unconventional campaign involving sabotage and assassination plots across Europe.
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12523242@egNews
https://iz.ru/1613993/2023-12-01/shoigu-anonsiroval-provedenie-strategicheskogo-ucheniia-okean-2024
https://www.nrk.no/norge/hemmelig-ubat-operasjon_-_malet-er-a-vise-at-russland-kan-na-usa_-1.14761298
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/04/arctic-exercise-umka-2021-shows-russian-ssbn-can-deliver-massive-strike/
https://thelookoutn.substack.com/p/taking-the-pulse-on-the-russian-ssbn
http://redstar.ru/na-sedoj-ladoge/